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EXAMINING SAMPLE MANAGEMENT SCENARIOS

Other typical questions cannot be fully answered

AND

DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS

with monitoring data, despite the breadth of these

indicators (Table 9.c).

In this section, we present examples of typical

The  improved  understanding  gained  through

management scenarios and their implications for

monitoring can help inform our understanding of

indicator selection. The examples encompass the

these more difficult questions. Some of these more

four main drivers of change in the MAR:

complex questions can also be addressed by using

the indicator data in conjunction with other research

·

Tourism,

data, models or published theoretical and quantitative

·

Agriculture,

information.

·

Fishing, and

·

Global Climate Change.

Table 9.c. Typical Management and Conservation

Questions that Cannot Be Fully Answered with

Decision trees can be used to guide systematic

Monitoring Data

indicator selection and program assessment2. To

illustrate the process, we present four sample decision

What are the main causes of reef degradation on

trees (Figures 9.a ­ 9.d) that illustrate scenarios

`my favorite reef' and overall in the MAR?

commonly encountered by MAR reef managers and

To what degree is human activity affecting the

corresponding indicators suited to each scenario.

spatial and temporal trends in coral mortality and

coral recruitment?

Each decision tree begins with a general

Where are the main sources of contamination in my

conservation goal and an overarching question. For

reef area?

example, a program concerned with tourism effects

(Figure 9.a) might aim to "Maintain ecosystem integrity

How will the addition of any one additional proposed

while supporting a sustainable tourism industry," while

resort, port, road or other coastal development

asking, "Is tourism affecting the reef ecosystem?"

project  affect  the  structural  and  functional

indicators? (Which straw will break the camel's

Each decision tree includes three types of

back?)

monitoring:

What percentage of recent measured declines in

·  Status monitoring includes typical ecological

coral cover is the result of "local factors" versus

monitoring (e.g., coral and fish diversity, habitat

larger scale factors associated with global climate

extent).

change, hurricane activity, etc.?

·  Threat or activity monitoring  measures the

extent of threat-based activities or industries.

·  Evaluation

of

management

strategies

incorporates performance evaluation of broad

@ 2006 Tony Rath Photography

conservation strategies employed by many

organizations in the region.

To use the decision tree, begin at the top by

answering the overarching yes/no question, then

follow the arrows for guidance.

For example, for tourism-related effects (Figure

9.a), the overarching question might be "Is tourism

affecting the reef ecosystem? If not (or if we don't

know), we'll want keep an eye on the situation through

routine status monitoring. If tourism is affecting the

reef ecosystem we'll want to assess the degree of

impact.

If the effects are mild (i.e., no "red flags," and indicator

benchmarks/targets are being met), we continue

regular status monitoring. If, however, indicator values

fall within the "red flag" zone or fall short of benchmark/

target values, we'll want to look into potential causes.

If we don't know the potential causes, then activity

monitoring is the next step.

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